Though there is a loss of spending in areas around Dickinson, the city is doing very well in retail sales, a state economist said Thursday at a Dickinson State University forum.
"You're bringing in one and a half times the state average in per capita retail sales in Dickinson, and that's just amazingly high," said Dr. David Flynn, Bureau of Business and Economic Research director.
He shared his economic forecast for the state at the event, which about 30 people attended.
Though retail is strong, people in the southwest part of the state spend much less on health care and social assistance than the rest of the state, Flynn said.
Bowman County's retail market looks promising and is second only to Stark County, Flynn said.
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Julie Lockert, community president of Wells Fargo Bank in Bowman, attended the event and said the information given made her more optimistic than she was.
"It just makes us kind of stop and realize, you know, how much North Dakota does have to offer and how we need to keep people in our communities and our counties," Lockert said. "I'd never really paid much attention to how well we are doing."
Some North Dakotans may be waiting for the economy in the area to drop, but Flynn said that may not be the case.
"As far as what we've seen and with the numbers we've been crunching, there's no reason for that to happen," Flynn said.
The economy could take a hit if major employers begin pulling out of the area, Flynn said.
Dickinson's unemployment rate is near 3.5 percent and Flynn said he expects the rate to stay between 3 and 3.5 percent over the next year and a half.
He predicts Dickinson's unemployment rate will decrease slightly and steadily. He expects the statewide unemployment rate to stay at 3.4 percent for the rest of the year, but expects it to be at 3.9 in 2010 and 4 to 4.3 percent in 2011.
Flynn said agriculture in the area is looking hopeful.
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"Weak dollar concerns have the potential, I think, to push up some crop prices," Flynn said.
The pace of recovery from the recession will determine the oil industry, Flynn said.
"If recovery is quick and the industry starts taking off, then that's good for oil," Flynn said, adding demand for oil will likely increase.
He said a slow recovery could put pressure on people to use less fuel.
"I think, overall, we're going to suffer less than other places," Flynn said.
The tourism industry could get stronger, Flynn said, especially for places such as Theodore Roosevelt National Park.
"There's a national park fad going on right now," Flynn said.
Flynn said that nationwide, the recession is likely over, but recovery will likely be uneven in geographic and industry terms.
